Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH +135 ARST -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -4.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -3.5 (+8.5) | 147.3 (+1.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -2.3 (+7.3) | 148.4 (+0.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -3.1 (+8.1) | 144.5 (+4.5) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -3.8 (+8.8) | 146.2 (+2.8) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MRSH 70 – 61 ARST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ARST 77 – 74 MRSH |
| Jan 21, 2023 | MRSH 87 – 78 ARST |
| Nov 27, 2020 | MRSH 70 – 56 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#187) | 6.5 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#198) | 1.44 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#202) | 1.74 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#180) | 0.588 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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