Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | BU -275 L-MD +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +13 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | BU -10.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -8.0 (+5.0) | 130.5 (-11.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -7.9 (+5.1) | 127.5 (-8.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -7.1 (+5.9) | 132.5 (-13.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -7.7 (+5.3) | 132.0 (-13.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | BU 78 – 69 L-MD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | L-MD 74 – 57 BU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | BU 68 – 66 L-MD |
| Feb 1, 2025 | L-MD 69 – 67 BU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | BU 82 – 79 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#246) | -11.1 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#275) | -1.65 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#278) | -2.19 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#258) | 0.411 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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