Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | USM -125 JMU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +13 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | USM -1.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -0.9 (+12.1) | 146.0 (+7.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -2.8 (+10.2) | 146.1 (+6.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -2.2 (+10.8) | 147.0 (+6.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -2.5 (+10.5) | 147.1 (+5.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | USM 86 – 80 JMU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USM 73 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | JMU 83 – 72 USM |
| Jan 6, 2024 | USM 81 – 71 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#84) | 8.4 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#61) | 0.34 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#64) | 0.90 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#45) | 0.508 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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