Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | USM -130 JMU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +8 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | USM -0.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -0.1 (+7.9) | 145.1 (-7.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -0.2 (+8.2) | 144.3 (-6.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -0.0 (+8.0) | 143.0 (-5.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -0.3 (+8.3) | 143.0 (-5.0) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | USM 86 – 80 JMU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | JMU 83 – 72 USM |
| Jan 6, 2024 | USM 81 – 71 JMU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | USM 83 – 70 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#253) | -3.4 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#236) | -0.28 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#242) | -0.54 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#214) | 0.505 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.