Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Under |
| Money | USM +270 JMU -345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +10 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -13.1 (+23.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -9.8 (+19.8) | 155.6 (-3.6) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -11.4 (+21.4) | 154.6 (-2.6) | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -11.3 (+21.3) | 155.2 (-3.2) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -10.2 (+20.2) | 156.1 (-4.1) | 18% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | USM 86 – 80 JMU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USM 73 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | JMU 83 – 72 USM |
| Jan 21, 2023 | USM 83 – 70 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 32-4 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-9 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#281) | 10.8 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#219) | 3.92 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#258) | 5.20 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#246) | 0.570 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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