Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | USM +114 JMU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +6 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -1.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -1.9 (+7.9) | 142.8 (+23.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -2.2 (+8.2) | 141.2 (+24.8) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -1.6 (+7.6) | 140.2 (+25.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -1.6 (+7.6) | 141.8 (+24.2) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | USM 73 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | JMU 83 – 72 USM |
| Jan 6, 2024 | USM 81 – 71 JMU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | USM 83 – 70 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#231) | -3.0 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#207) | -0.12 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#220) | -0.27 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#196) | 0.523 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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