Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | JMU -800 USM +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +11 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -14.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -12.5 (-1.5) | 137.1 (+17.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -10.4 (+0.6) | 138.2 (+16.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -10.7 (+0.3) | 137.9 (+17.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -9.8 (+1.2) | 136.8 (+18.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | USM 86 – 80 JMU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USM 73 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | USM 81 – 71 JMU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | USM 83 – 70 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#140) | -9.1 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#154) | -1.25 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#141) | -1.86 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#132) | 0.407 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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