Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -450 NEB +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +11 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -8.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -7.2 (+3.8) | 135.0 (+6.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -7.8 (+3.2) | 136.1 (+4.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -6.5 (+4.5) | 136.4 (+4.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -6.4 (+4.6) | 136.8 (+4.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEB 87 – 64 PSU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | PSU 89 – 72 NEB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NEB 68 – 49 PSU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | NEB 72 – 63 PSU |
| Feb 28, 2022 | NEB 93 – 70 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#53) | 4.9 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#52) | 1.32 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#42) | 1.65 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#67) | 0.551 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 18.1% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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