Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | PSU +110 NEB -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +17 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -0.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -0.7 (+16.3) | 148.9 (+12.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -1.2 (+15.8) | 146.4 (+14.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -0.7 (+16.3) | 146.9 (+14.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -0.2 (+17.2) | 147.4 (+13.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEB 87 – 64 PSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NEB 68 – 49 PSU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | NEB 72 – 63 PSU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | PSU 76 – 65 NEB |
| Feb 28, 2022 | NEB 93 – 70 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#60) | 12.1 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#108) | 2.29 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#83) | 3.13 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#166) | 0.599 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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