Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | TXST +200 UL -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +9 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -0.7 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -0.7 (-8.3) | 138.8 (-27.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -0.5 (-8.5) | 136.9 (-25.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -1.0 (-8.0) | 140.1 (-29.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -1.1 (-7.9) | 139.8 (-28.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UL 67 – 54 TXST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TXST 59 – 54 UL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UL 70 – 61 TXST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | TXST 89 – 74 UL |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UL 66 – 46 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 4-10 | 14-0 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#193) | 3.3 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#195) | 1.27 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#197) | 1.70 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#211) | 0.578 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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