Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UL +142 TXST -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +13 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -2.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -3.3 (+16.3) | 135.2 (-14.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -2.1 (+15.1) | 135.1 (-14.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -2.0 (+15.0) | 136.4 (-15.4) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -3.0 (+16.0) | 135.0 (-14.0) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | TXST 59 – 54 UL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UL 70 – 61 TXST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | TXST 89 – 74 UL |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UL 66 – 46 TXST |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UL 86 – 68 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#311) | -5.3 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#297) | -0.13 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#298) | -0.39 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#295) | 0.490 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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