Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TXST -1000 UL +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +9 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -15.0 (-24.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -10.9 (-19.9) | 144.0 (-13.0) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -9.8 (-18.8) | 143.1 (-12.1) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -10.9 (-19.9) | 145.3 (-14.3) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -10.8 (-19.8) | 145.2 (-14.2) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UL 67 – 54 TXST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TXST 59 – 54 UL |
| Jan 23, 2025 | TXST 89 – 74 UL |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UL 66 – 46 TXST |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UL 86 – 68 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-12 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#166) | -11.7 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#169) | -1.88 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#190) | -2.45 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#138) | 0.437 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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