Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | TXST -440 UL +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +5 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -7.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -5.7 (-0.7) | 133.7 (-20.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -6.3 (-1.3) | 131.8 (-18.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -4.8 (+0.2) | 134.9 (-21.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -5.1 (-0.1) | 134.5 (-21.5) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UL 67 – 54 TXST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UL 70 – 61 TXST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | TXST 89 – 74 UL |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UL 66 – 46 TXST |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UL 86 – 68 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#286) | -12.1 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#241) | -2.53 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#248) | -3.24 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#287) | 0.407 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 36.0% |
Game Analysis
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