Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UL +195 TXST -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +15 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -7.9 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -7.0 (-8.0) | 145.7 (+17.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -6.9 (-8.1) | 142.9 (+20.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -7.1 (-7.9) | 144.8 (+18.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -6.9 (-8.1) | 145.6 (+17.4) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UL 67 – 54 TXST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TXST 59 – 54 UL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UL 70 – 61 TXST |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UL 66 – 46 TXST |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UL 86 – 68 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-12 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#330) | -0.1 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#318) | 0.03 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#312) | -0.29 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#263) | 0.514 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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