Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UL -400 TXST +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +20 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | UL -10.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -10.8 (+9.2) | 141.6 (-29.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -10.5 (+9.5) | 139.2 (-27.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -9.5 (+10.5) | 140.9 (-28.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -9.7 (+10.3) | 141.2 (-29.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UL 67 – 54 TXST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TXST 59 – 54 UL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UL 70 – 61 TXST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | TXST 89 – 74 UL |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UL 86 – 68 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#135) | -4.6 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#135) | -1.06 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#134) | -0.98 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#115) | 0.470 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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