Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY -138 NAVY +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | ARMY -3.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -2.5 (-8.5) | 142.1 (+5.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -1.5 (-7.5) | 139.6 (+8.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -2.9 (-8.9) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -3.0 (-9.0) | 144.0 (+4.0) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NAVY 81 – 63 ARMY |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 56 ARMY |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NAVY 61 – 54 ARMY |
| Jan 26, 2025 | NAVY 66 – 53 ARMY |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ARMY 69 – 67 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#225) | -2.7 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#267) | -0.77 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#240) | -1.07 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#276) | 0.458 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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