Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -170 ARMY +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +7 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -2.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-34.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -1.8 (+5.2) | 144.3 (-29.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -2.7 (+4.3) | 141.8 (-26.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -1.3 (+5.7) | 143.8 (-28.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -1.5 (+5.5) | 145.5 (-30.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NAVY 81 – 63 ARMY |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 56 ARMY |
| Jan 26, 2025 | NAVY 66 – 53 ARMY |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ARMY 69 – 67 NAVY |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NAVY 57 – 53 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#288) | -7.2 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#323) | -0.63 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#314) | -1.08 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#333) | 0.492 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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