Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -700 ARMY +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +28 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -12.8 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -10.0 (+18.0) | 145.7 (-5.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -11.1 (+16.9) | 142.8 (-2.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -11.8 (+16.2) | 143.0 (-3.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -12.7 (+15.3) | 141.8 (-1.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NAVY 81 – 63 ARMY |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NAVY 61 – 54 ARMY |
| Jan 26, 2025 | NAVY 66 – 53 ARMY |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ARMY 69 – 67 NAVY |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NAVY 57 – 53 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-10 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#197) | -11.7 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#203) | -1.87 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#214) | -2.66 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#215) | 0.415 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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