Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY +310 NAVY -395 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +18 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -9.7 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -9.0 (-9.0) | 138.0 (+6.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -7.7 (-10.3) | 137.7 (+6.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -8.3 (-9.7) | 137.7 (+6.3) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -8.5 (-9.5) | 138.1 (+5.9) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 56 ARMY |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NAVY 61 – 54 ARMY |
| Jan 26, 2025 | NAVY 66 – 53 ARMY |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ARMY 69 – 67 NAVY |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NAVY 57 – 53 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 17-1 |
| Home | 6-10 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#331) | 0.3 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#326) | 0.26 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#332) | -0.10 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#304) | 0.522 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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