Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ARMY -155 NAVY +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +13 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | ARMY -3.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-32.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -3.0 (-16.0) | 143.7 (-24.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -3.1 (-16.1) | 143.8 (-24.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -3.2 (-16.2) | 143.6 (-24.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -3.6 (-16.6) | 145.6 (-26.6) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NAVY 81 – 63 ARMY |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 56 ARMY |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NAVY 61 – 54 ARMY |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ARMY 69 – 67 NAVY |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NAVY 57 – 53 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#284) | -7.9 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#222) | -2.07 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#247) | -2.40 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#198) | 0.377 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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