Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY -138 NAVY +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -2.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -0.3 (+1.7) | 128.8 (+7.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -0.6 (+1.4) | 126.6 (+9.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -0.7 (+1.3) | 127.7 (+8.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.5 (+2.5) | 129.8 (+6.2) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NAVY 81 – 63 ARMY |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 56 ARMY |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NAVY 61 – 54 ARMY |
| Jan 26, 2025 | NAVY 66 – 53 ARMY |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NAVY 57 – 53 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-11 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.9 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#320) | -8.7 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#349) | -2.35 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#342) | -2.87 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#349) | 0.376 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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