Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -500 MISS +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +12 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -11.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -8.3 (+3.7) | 137.7 (-11.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -10.3 (+1.7) | 134.3 (-8.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -9.0 (+3.0) | 138.1 (-12.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -9.4 (+2.6) | 137.5 (-11.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARK 93 – 90 MISS |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARK 94 – 87 MISS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MISS 83 – 80 ARK |
| Jan 9, 2025 | MISS 73 – 66 ARK |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MISS 77 – 51 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-10 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#23) | 5.1 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#44) | 0.64 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#50) | 1.21 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#23) | 0.546 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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