Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MISS +154 ARK -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +7 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -6.8 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (+25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -4.5 (-2.5) | 150.1 (+30.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -2.3 (-4.7) | 148.3 (+32.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.1 (-1.9) | 148.8 (+32.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -4.7 (-2.3) | 148.6 (+32.4) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARK 93 – 90 MISS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MISS 83 – 80 ARK |
| Jan 9, 2025 | MISS 73 – 66 ARK |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MISS 77 – 51 ARK |
| Jan 21, 2023 | ARK 69 – 57 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 17-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 90.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#93) | 17.1 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#128) | 3.09 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#113) | 4.65 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#156) | 0.610 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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