Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -170 MISS +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +7 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -4.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -3.4 (-10.4) | 144.6 (-5.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -2.4 (-9.4) | 144.1 (-5.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -3.1 (-10.1) | 142.7 (-3.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -3.7 (-10.7) | 143.0 (-4.0) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARK 93 – 90 MISS |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARK 94 – 87 MISS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MISS 83 – 80 ARK |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MISS 77 – 51 ARK |
| Jan 21, 2023 | ARK 69 – 57 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#31) | 13.9 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#40) | 3.28 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#39) | 4.72 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#68) | 0.606 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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