Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -185 ARK +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -1.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -1.4 (+1.6) | 149.1 (+13.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -1.4 (+1.6) | 146.6 (+16.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -1.4 (+1.6) | 148.6 (+14.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -1.2 (+1.8) | 149.0 (+14.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARK 93 – 90 MISS |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARK 94 – 87 MISS |
| Jan 9, 2025 | MISS 73 – 66 ARK |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MISS 77 – 51 ARK |
| Jan 21, 2023 | ARK 69 – 57 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#31) | 13.8 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#10) | 2.55 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.13 (#9) | 3.14 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#16) | 0.570 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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