Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MISS -400 ARK +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +26 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -6.6 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -7.1 (+18.9) | 152.9 (-24.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -6.4 (+19.6) | 148.9 (-20.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -6.8 (+19.2) | 148.2 (-20.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -6.7 (+19.3) | 149.6 (-21.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARK 93 – 90 MISS |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARK 94 – 87 MISS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MISS 83 – 80 ARK |
| Jan 9, 2025 | MISS 73 – 66 ARK |
| Jan 21, 2023 | ARK 69 – 57 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#86) | 3.7 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#13) | 1.17 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#18) | 1.27 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#16) | 0.555 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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