Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -425 MISS +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +3 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -11.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -10.3 (-7.3) | 157.8 (+25.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -8.5 (-5.5) | 157.8 (+25.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -8.5 (-5.5) | 154.0 (+29.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -9.0 (-6.0) | 153.8 (+29.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARK 94 – 87 MISS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MISS 83 – 80 ARK |
| Jan 9, 2025 | MISS 73 – 66 ARK |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MISS 77 – 51 ARK |
| Jan 21, 2023 | ARK 69 – 57 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 17-1 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#14) | 8.3 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#18) | 1.17 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#16) | 1.56 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#8) | 0.508 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.89 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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