Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -175 CAN +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +9 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -4.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.5 (+6.5) | 135.0 (-10.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -2.4 (+6.6) | 134.8 (-9.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.1 (+6.9) | 133.7 (-8.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -2.2 (+6.8) | 134.0 (-9.0) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | FAIR 61 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CAN 85 – 81 FAIR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CAN 78 – 67 FAIR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | FAIR 74 – 62 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 63 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#249) | -5.8 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#287) | -1.41 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#292) | -1.63 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#256) | 0.447 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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