Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | RAD -250 HPU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +15 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -11.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+31.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -10.3 (+4.7) | 141.8 (+33.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -8.0 (+7.0) | 143.7 (+31.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -10.0 (+5.0) | 141.0 (+34.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -9.5 (+5.5) | 142.0 (+33.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HPU 86 – 77 RAD |
| Jan 24, 2026 | HPU 93 – 83 RAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | HPU 76 – 73 RAD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | HPU 78 – 75 RAD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | HPU 76 – 58 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#141) | -6.5 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#200) | -0.76 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#198) | -1.35 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#201) | 0.447 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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