Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -500 RAD +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -7.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -5.3 (-2.3) | 141.3 (+7.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -6.4 (-3.4) | 139.4 (+9.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -5.7 (-2.7) | 139.6 (+9.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -5.3 (-2.3) | 140.4 (+8.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HPU 86 – 77 RAD |
| Jan 24, 2026 | HPU 93 – 83 RAD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | HPU 78 – 75 RAD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | HPU 76 – 58 RAD |
| Mar 8, 2024 | HPU 77 – 63 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 9-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#87) | -0.9 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#77) | 0.33 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#80) | 0.42 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#51) | 0.527 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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