Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -700 RAD +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -10.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -9.8 (+4.2) | 150.9 (-10.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -8.7 (+5.3) | 150.8 (-10.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -10.4 (+3.6) | 151.6 (-11.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -9.8 (+4.2) | 152.1 (-12.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HPU 86 – 77 RAD |
| Jan 24, 2026 | HPU 93 – 83 RAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | HPU 76 – 73 RAD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | HPU 78 – 75 RAD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | HPU 76 – 58 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#115) | -3.4 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#106) | -0.55 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#101) | -0.54 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#94) | 0.480 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 35.9% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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