Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -1450 RAD +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +9 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -16.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -15.8 (-6.8) | 162.0 (+1.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -14.2 (-5.2) | 160.4 (+2.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -14.3 (-5.3) | 157.3 (+5.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -14.3 (-5.3) | 158.8 (+4.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | HPU 93 – 83 RAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | HPU 76 – 73 RAD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | HPU 78 – 75 RAD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | HPU 76 – 58 RAD |
| Mar 8, 2024 | HPU 77 – 63 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 9-7 |
| Home | 17-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 80.8 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#80) | -5.4 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#104) | -1.09 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#119) | -1.46 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#108) | 0.445 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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