Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -500 RAD +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +18 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -7.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -5.0 (+13.0) | 141.0 (-7.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -5.6 (+12.4) | 139.1 (-5.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -5.1 (+12.9) | 140.8 (-6.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -4.9 (+13.1) | 140.3 (-6.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HPU 86 – 77 RAD |
| Jan 24, 2026 | HPU 93 – 83 RAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | HPU 76 – 73 RAD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | HPU 78 – 75 RAD |
| Mar 8, 2024 | HPU 77 – 63 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 9-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#139) | -2.4 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#131) | 0.88 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#140) | 1.01 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#172) | 0.541 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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