Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO -150 TNTC +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +7 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -6.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -3.7 (+3.3) | 151.5 (+9.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -4.4 (+2.6) | 149.5 (+11.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -3.8 (+3.2) | 149.1 (+11.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -4.1 (+2.9) | 151.9 (+9.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SEMO 89 – 73 TNTC |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNTC 85 – 74 SEMO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SEMO 83 – 69 TNTC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SEMO 77 – 70 TNTC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SEMO 88 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#240) | -6.6 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#249) | -1.32 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#254) | -1.70 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#221) | 0.437 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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