I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
Northeast Conference · Bogota Savings Bank Center · January 21, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread FDU -4.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Over
Money FDU -200 / SHU +200
Model Predictions
Spread Total FDU win
Actual SHU +7 177 Lost
Massey FDU -6.4 (-13.4)
Massey Totals 158.1 (+18.9)
Bradley-Terry 78%
Weighted B-T 83%
Efficiency Plus ML FDU -4.7 (-11.7) 153.7 (+23.3) 62%
Baseline Tuned ML FDU -5.0 (-12.0) 151.5 (+25.5) 71%
Baseline ML FDU -4.7 (-11.7) 151.7 (+25.3) 67%
Baseline Plus ML FDU -4.5 (-11.5) 153.4 (+23.6) 64%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 23, 2024 SHU 9991 FDU
Jan 27, 2024 FDU 9391 SHU
Feb 17, 2023 SHU 9486 FDU
Feb 12, 2022 FDU 8275 SHU
Jan 15, 2022 SHU 7771 FDU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FDU SHU
Overall 21-16 16-17
Conference 10-6 8-8
Home 10-5 9-6
Away 8-9 7-11
Neutral 3-2 0-0
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.9 69.8
Avg Pts Against 75.1 71.6
Massey -6.7 (#285) -9.3 (#325)
Bradley-Terry -0.84 (#264) -1.47 (#307)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.18 (#268) -2.00 (#314)
RPI 0.451 (#275) 0.422 (#309)
Shooting & Four Factors FDU SHU
FG% 44.5% 41.4%
3PT% 33.5% 29.7%
REB / G 33.0 36.8
OREB / G 10.7 10.6
AST / TO 1.16 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 47.1%
TOV% 16.6% 18.7%
ORB% 29.6% 27.9%
FT Rate 21.5% 17.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.3% 49.7%
Opp TOV% 21.3% 18.7%
DRB% 70.2% 71.2%
Opp FT Rate 23.8% 18.6%

Game Analysis

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