Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UAPB +260 SOU -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +7 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -3.6 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -2.9 (+9.9) | 143.7 (-26.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -3.2 (+10.2) | 143.0 (-26.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -2.5 (+9.5) | 142.8 (-25.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -2.2 (+9.2) | 144.5 (-27.5) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SOU 84 – 81 UAPB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UAPB 75 – 74 SOU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SOU 83 – 67 UAPB |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SOU 80 – 66 UAPB |
| Jan 22, 2022 | SOU 99 – 51 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-2 |
| Away | 2-16 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L9 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#321) | -1.8 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#301) | -0.30 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#310) | -0.53 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#285) | 0.492 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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