Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -440 UAPB +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -7.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -5.9 (-6.9) | 152.6 (-3.6) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -5.0 (-6.0) | 151.1 (-2.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -4.8 (-5.8) | 151.6 (-2.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.2 (-6.2) | 154.3 (-5.3) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SOU 84 – 81 UAPB |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SOU 83 – 67 UAPB |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SOU 80 – 66 UAPB |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UAPB 62 – 55 SOU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | SOU 99 – 51 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 7-12 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#277) | -11.8 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#266) | -1.38 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#267) | -2.03 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#278) | 0.452 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.0% | 36.0% |
Game Analysis
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