Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UAPB +800 SOU -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +16 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -16.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -13.0 (-3.0) | 148.5 (+1.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -12.2 (-3.8) | 146.9 (+3.1) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -14.1 (-1.9) | 148.0 (+2.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -12.9 (-3.1) | 147.5 (+2.5) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SOU 84 – 81 UAPB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UAPB 75 – 74 SOU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SOU 80 – 66 UAPB |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UAPB 62 – 55 SOU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | SOU 99 – 51 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 15-3 |
| Home | 4-8 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-17 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -22.4 (#363) | -2.7 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.18 (#363) | -0.11 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.29 (#363) | -0.28 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.309 (#364) | 0.502 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.