Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -230 UAPB +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +3 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -3.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -2.3 (+0.7) | 154.5 (+10.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -3.6 (-0.6) | 153.1 (+11.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -2.2 (+0.8) | 152.3 (+12.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -2.7 (+0.3) | 151.5 (+13.5) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UAPB 75 – 74 SOU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SOU 83 – 67 UAPB |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SOU 80 – 66 UAPB |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UAPB 62 – 55 SOU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | SOU 99 – 51 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 7-12 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#295) | -12.1 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#260) | -1.34 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#255) | -1.89 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#252) | 0.473 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.