Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +48 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -16.9 (+31.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -12.2 (+35.8) | 140.5 (+9.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -12.5 (+35.5) | 140.4 (+9.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -11.9 (+36.1) | 142.4 (+7.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -12.8 (+35.2) | 141.9 (+8.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SOU 84 – 81 UAPB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UAPB 75 – 74 SOU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SOU 83 – 67 UAPB |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SOU 80 – 66 UAPB |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UAPB 62 – 55 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-2 | 5-7 |
| Away | 8-11 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#213) | -15.3 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#189) | -2.98 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#213) | -4.07 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#166) | 0.386 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.1% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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