Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -450 UAPB +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -13.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -9.8 (+4.2) | 155.5 (-9.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -10.3 (+3.7) | 156.3 (-10.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -10.1 (+3.9) | 154.6 (-8.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -10.4 (+3.6) | 154.9 (-8.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SOU 84 – 81 UAPB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UAPB 75 – 74 SOU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SOU 83 – 67 UAPB |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UAPB 62 – 55 SOU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | SOU 99 – 51 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-11 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#251) | -13.7 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#196) | -1.80 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#203) | -2.78 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#183) | 0.421 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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