Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MUR +163 INST -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +9 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | INST -1.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -1.0 (+10.0) | 147.4 (+7.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -2.0 (+7.0) | 145.9 (+9.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -0.8 (+9.8) | 146.7 (+8.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -1.3 (+10.3) | 148.1 (+6.9) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MUR 74 – 72 INST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MUR 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MUR 85 – 75 INST |
| Dec 19, 2024 | INST 84 – 74 MUR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | INST 89 – 77 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#196) | 4.0 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#178) | 0.27 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#176) | 0.28 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#171) | 0.502 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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