Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -225 INST +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +10 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -7.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -6.7 (+3.3) | 149.9 (+10.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -4.3 (+5.7) | 151.0 (+9.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -5.7 (+4.3) | 148.9 (+11.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -5.8 (+4.2) | 151.7 (+8.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MUR 74 – 72 INST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MUR 85 – 81 INST |
| Dec 19, 2024 | INST 84 – 74 MUR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | INST 89 – 77 MUR |
| Jan 21, 2024 | INST 72 – 63 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#148) | -3.1 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#159) | -0.35 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#155) | -0.47 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#174) | 0.477 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.