Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | INST -1400 MUR +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +12 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | INST -14.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -14.3 (-2.3) | 150.9 (+15.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -12.5 (-0.5) | 149.5 (+16.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -13.4 (-1.4) | 150.8 (+15.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -13.4 (-1.4) | 151.0 (+15.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MUR 74 – 72 INST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MUR 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MUR 85 – 75 INST |
| Dec 19, 2024 | INST 84 – 74 MUR |
| Jan 21, 2024 | INST 72 – 63 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-8 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#37) | 1.3 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#24) | -0.31 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#33) | 0.08 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#40) | 0.490 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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