Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | INST +150 MUR -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +2 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -5.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -3.6 (+1.6) | 158.1 (-12.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -3.3 (+1.3) | 157.9 (-11.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -3.9 (+1.9) | 156.8 (-10.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -3.9 (+1.9) | 158.8 (-12.8) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | MUR 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MUR 85 – 75 INST |
| Dec 19, 2024 | INST 84 – 74 MUR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | INST 89 – 77 MUR |
| Jan 21, 2024 | INST 72 – 63 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#208) | 5.5 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#256) | 0.80 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#256) | 0.85 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#263) | 0.542 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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