Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | INST +125 MUR -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -2.9 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -3.4 (+13.4) | 150.3 (+7.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -0.1 (+10.1) | 150.6 (+7.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -2.0 (+12.0) | 151.1 (+6.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -3.0 (+13.0) | 151.0 (+7.0) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MUR 74 – 72 INST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MUR 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MUR 85 – 75 INST |
| Mar 3, 2024 | INST 89 – 77 MUR |
| Jan 21, 2024 | INST 72 – 63 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#206) | 4.4 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#202) | 0.41 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#228) | 1.47 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#273) | 0.507 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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