Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
| Money | MUR +196 INST -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +9 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -8.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -5.7 (-3.3) | 151.7 (-16.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -8.1 (-0.9) | 152.1 (-17.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -6.0 (-3.0) | 151.6 (-16.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -6.2 (-2.8) | 153.4 (-18.4) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MUR 74 – 72 INST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MUR 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MUR 85 – 75 INST |
| Dec 19, 2024 | INST 84 – 74 MUR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | INST 89 – 77 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 17-3 |
| Home | 8-8 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#144) | 13.4 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#213) | 2.27 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#176) | 2.67 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#214) | 0.605 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 61.4% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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