Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -800 INST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -15.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -13.8 (-9.8) | 160.1 (+5.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -13.0 (-9.0) | 161.4 (+4.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -12.8 (-8.8) | 155.3 (+10.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -13.1 (-9.1) | 157.6 (+8.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MUR 74 – 72 INST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MUR 85 – 75 INST |
| Dec 19, 2024 | INST 84 – 74 MUR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | INST 89 – 77 MUR |
| Jan 21, 2024 | INST 72 – 63 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#71) | -2.7 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#57) | -0.60 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#68) | -1.05 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#66) | 0.464 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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