Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -175 CCSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +22 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -4.8 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -2.8 (+19.2) | 129.7 (-7.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -5.7 (+16.3) | 123.7 (-1.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -2.5 (+19.5) | 129.8 (-7.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -3.6 (+18.4) | 130.1 (-8.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | WAG 70 – 60 CCSU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | CCSU 84 – 67 WAG |
| Jan 30, 2026 | CCSU 62 – 55 WAG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CCSU 55 – 48 WAG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WAG 62 – 57 CCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.3 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#306) | -9.0 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#289) | -2.55 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#305) | -2.92 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#291) | 0.380 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 12.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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