Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | COPP +188 NORF -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +31 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -1.8 (-29.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -4.3 (-26.7) | 151.4 (+9.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -4.7 (-26.3) | 148.9 (+12.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -2.7 (-28.3) | 153.4 (+7.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -2.5 (-28.5) | 153.0 (+8.0) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | NORF 75 – 69 COPP |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NORF 103 – 76 COPP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NORF 79 – 63 COPP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NORF 92 – 69 COPP |
| Mar 13, 2024 | NORF 75 – 51 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 9-5 |
| Home | 4-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-16 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#319) | -3.1 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#274) | 0.23 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#273) | 0.39 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#261) | 0.514 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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